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Climate change will alter Great Lakes region, new reportApril 8, 2003 - TORONTO – Climate change will alter the Great Lakes region with more floods and droughts, lower lake levels, less lake ice cover and more extreme weather events, says comprehensive new study released today by the Union of Concerned Scientists and the David Suzuki Foundation. The report concludes that climate change could lead to a 3 to 6 degree Celsius temperature increase in winter and as much as a 4 to 8 degree warming in summer in Ontario by the end of this century. The scientific analysis also shows climate change will likely magnify health and environmental problems in the region. However, the report concludes that actions can be taken now to forestall many of the most severe impacts. "Climate change will alter the character of Ontario, presenting challenges to the environment, the economy and the people who live there," said one of the report’s authors, Katharine Hayhoe, a climate and atmospheric scientist. "To avert the worst impacts of global warming, we can harness our industrial know-how and economic strength to reduce the amount of fossil fuels we burn to produce electricity, drive our cars and run our industries." Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region is a combined effort of the Ecological Society of America, the Union of Concerned Scientists and the David Suzuki Foundation. It was written by American and Canadian scientists. The report was simultaneously released today in Toronto, Chicago, Detroit, Madison, Milwaukee and Minneapolis-St. Paul. The two-year study summarizes the current scientific knowledge about the potential regional impacts of climate change, which is caused principally by carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels. "Warmer temperatures will harm Ontario's lake trout and brook trout while extending the range of invasive species such as zebra mussel and carp," said Dr. Brian Shuter, a research scientist with the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and the University of Toronto. "Large changes in climate will mean that many species will move north out of the region and new species will move in from the south. This process could be prolonged and chaotic." The study combines the most advanced models of the Earth’s climate system with 100 years of historical climate data for the region to produce the latest, most reliable projections of future climate change in the Great Lakes region. The report shows the number of hot days in the Toronto-Niagara region could double by the 2030s and surpass 50 days by the 2080s. The annual heat-related death rate of 19 per year in Toronto could increase between 10 and 40-fold by the end of the century, necessitating improved warning systems and preparation to avoid such severe human impacts. Increasing temperatures will likely expand Ontario’s summer recreation season, but extreme heat, heavy downpours, elevated ozone levels, and possible increases in risk from insect-and waterborne diseases may dampen outdoor enthusiasm. "The Great Lakes area as we know it will change forever," said David Suzuki, scientist and broadcaster. "I grew up in this region and have fond memories of paddling and fishing in the lakes and watching birds from farmers’ fields – climate change is altering the area’s natural spaces dramatically. This research illustrates just how serious a problem we’ve got." Ontario holds about one-third of the world’s fresh water. As a result of seasonal shifts in precipitation, the region’s water supplies may be diminished, especially during summer when rainfall can’t compensate for the drying effect of a warmer climate. The levels of Ontario’s four Great Lakes and their inland lakes are likely to drop overall, soil moisture in the region could decrease by as much as 30 per cent in the summer, and competition over water resources for irrigation, drinking and other uses could increase. However, the report also describes how the Great Lakes region can rise to the challenges of climate change with a three-pronged approach: reducing emissions of heat-trapping gases, minimizing human pressures on ecosystems, and planning for the impacts of a changing climate. Ontario could reduce emissions by increasing energy efficiency in industries and homes, boosting renewable energy sources such as wind power, and by improving vehicle fuel efficiency. "By acting now to advance known solutions, leaders and citizens can protect the rich natural heritage, vibrant economy, and well-being of people and communities throughout Ontario," said Kevin Knobloch, Executive Director of the Union of Concerned Scientists. "Waiting to reduce emissions will increase the eventual severity, expense and likelihood of irreversible losses – a terrible legacy to leave our children and grandchildren." Background video is available for television journalists. Read the full report and summaries of Ontario impacts and solutions. For more information, contact: Paul Fain Alex Boston
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