International climate change talks are now fully underway in Bali. By the time they wrap up next Friday, countries will have to come to an agreement on a deal to replace the Kyoto Protocol.

The Bali conference won't actually deliver a fully negotiated climate change deal. But it will lay the foundation for a new deal for the post-2012 period, which is the year when the first phase of the Kyoto Protocol expires.

The UN has made it clear that it wants that deal created by 2009 so that it can be ratified and implemented in time. Yes, it can take years for those things to happen (sometimes it feels like the glacial pace of these negotiations is out of step with the urgency of climate change).

The UN has also outlined how success or failure will be measured when the Bali conference wraps up on December 14. Success in Bali will be the launch of negotiations and a clear deadline of 2009 to end the negotiations. It should also include real progress in countries taking on stronger commitments to tackle climate change.

Failure in Bali will be anything short of that. Delaying the talks could create a gap between the Kyoto Protocol and a new agreement.

In addition to the new climate change deal, there are lots of other issues under negotiation at Bali. This includes deeper emission cuts for industrialized countries, adaptation to climate change, the management and operation of a fund for adaptation, technology transfer, reducing emissions from deforestation and issues related to the international carbon market.

It's hard to follow everything that's happening here, especially when the daily agenda is filled with items like "Implications of the establishment of new hydrochlorofluorocarbon-22 (HCFC-22) facilities seeking to obtain certified emission reductions for the destruction of hydrofluorocarbon-23 (HFC-23)." Huh?

Other things are much easier to follow, such as Australia's announcement yesterday that it ratified the Kyoto Protocol.

Back at home, Environment Minister John Baird stood up in the House of Commons yesterday and said 2 degrees of average global warming would be "unacceptable." However, Canada's targets and policies will have to be considerably strengthened in order to reflect this new position.

We hope this means Canada will come to Bali with an increased willingness to play a constructive role in the negotiations (a little optimism never hurt anyone).

No one's really sure how it will all turn out yet. Two days down, ten to go.