"The combination of human-driven climate change and rapidly changing social and economic conditions will set off a chain reaction of devastation, leading to super disasters."
Astrid Heiberg, president, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

The economic costs of climate change are already emerging. But what we've seen so far is only the tip of the iceberg.

The Rising Costs of Disaster

The reinsurance industry, being responsible for covering the financial burden of disasters, pays very close attention to trends in extreme weather. The overall trend they have observed is very clear: weather-related disasters are increasing at an enormous rate.

From the 1950s to the 1990s, the number of natural catastrophes worldwide increased fourfold, while economic losses from natural catastrophes, after adjusting for inflation, increased by an astonishing factor of 14.

In Canada, the rise in disaster losses mirrors the global trend, far outstripping the growth in GDP. This graph shows the massive growth in costs to the insurance industry and federal disaster programs since 1983. Note that the amount lost in 1998 alone is more than the preceding five year period (due in large part to the expense of the ice storm).

Blame The Weather

The explosive rise in weather-related disasters has far outpaced the more sedate growth rate of earthquake disasters.

For decades, the frequency of earthquakes has remained roughly constant, while the frequency of earthquake disasters has steadily risen. This reflects the influence of socioeconomic factors on human vulnerability: as the global population swells, we inhabit more dangerous areas and live in larger, more unstable buildings.

Humans are also becoming increasingly vulnerable to weather related disasters. However, the number of weather-related disasters is increasing much more rapidly than the number of earthquake disasters. The difference between the earthquake-baseline and the trends of weather-related disasters reflects the growing impacts of climate change.

The Most Vulnerable With the Most to Lose

"Reckless human use of fossil fuels - overwhelmingly by industrialised countries - has helped raise the spectre of climate change, which darkens everyone's horizon. But poor people in poor countries suffer first and worst from extreme weather conditions linked to climate change."
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies World Disasters Report 2000

According to the Red Cross, 96% of all deaths from natural disasters occur in developing countries. Most of these countries are located in the tropics, where cycles of droughts and floods are already common and stand to be strongly exacerbated by increasing extremes.

Geographical vulnerability to increases in extreme weather, combined with often crippling economic disadvantages, means that the world’s poorer countries will be hardest hit by climate change. At the same time, they are the least capable of mounting an effective response to deal with the changes.

Wealthy nations are responsible for 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions - while the poorest and most vulnerable nations generate almost none by comparison. Beyond concern for our own future, citizens of countries like Canada have an ethical imperative to mitigate disasters worldwide by curbing our emissions.

A Nurturing Past